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No El Nino Until November 2015 Predict Physicists

10.01.2015
10.01.2015 02:58 Age: 2 yrs

Potentially significant research that provides a physical explanation for El Nino cycles by linking them to the sun also has major implications for our understanding of the importance of the role of the sun in the climate system more widely and for the implied reliability of climate models

Click to enlarge. From Part 1 paper. Plot associated with HadSST3. Plot of HadSST3(black, with data points) and aHadSST3(red). The 24-month and 36-month phase-locked segments are indicated by green shaded rectangles. Courtesy: authors and Physics Letters A.

Click to enlarge. From Part 1 paper. Plot associated with HadSST3. Plot of high-frequency component hHadSST3(lower curve) and its amplitude A(hHadSST3). Courtesy: authors and Physics Letters A.

Click to enlarge. From Part 1 paper. Plot associated with HadSST3. Autocorrelation of hHadSST3indicating a periodicity of 12 months. Courtesy: authors and Physics Letters A.

Click to enlarge. From Part 1 paper. Plot associated with HadSST3. Autocorrelation of segment of aHAdSST3from February 2002 to March 2008 (in red) and of segment of aSST3.4from 2008 to the end of available data (2013), indicating, respectively, periodicities of 24 and 36 months. Courtesy: authors and Physics Letters A.

Click to enlarge. David Douglass: "modest prediction". Courtesy: University of Rochester.

 

by Leon Cliffordreportingclimatescience.com was told by professor David Douglass of the University of Rochester in the US, co-author of the studies.

This research is based on a detailed mathematical analysis of sea surface temperature data for a part of the Pacific Ocean over a period from 1990 to 2013 which provided evidence that the sun is acting as a kind of pacemaker for driving the global climate.

Orbital eccentricity brings the Earth closer to the sun in January each year than it is in July which results in an annual cycle of slight warming and cooling as the planet circles the sun. But the researchers have discovered that this annual orbital cycle is mixed in with another signal which is also linked to the sun and which has a period of either two or three years.

Phase locking

reportingclimatescience.com

Implications

The Two Papers

The Sun is the climate pacemaker I

Highlights

Physics Letters A identifies the highlights of this paper as follows:

Central Pacific region temperature dataset SST3.4 from 1990 to 2014 is studied.

SST3.4 contains a sustained signal at 1.0 cycle/yr implying solar forcing.

This signal contains segments of period 2 or 3 years, phase locked to the annual.


Abstract


Citation

The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures  by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox published in Physics Letters A doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.057

Read the abstract and get the paper here.

The Sun is the climate pacemaker II

Highlights

Physics Letters A identifies the highlights of this paper as follows:

Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

Abstract

Citation

The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox published in Physics Letters A doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.058

Read the abstract and get the paper here.

 

Note: This story replaces a previous report posted shortly before that contained three typographical errors.